Madison, 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS64 KJAN 141203 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
603 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A line of thunderstorms will move across the region late this
    evening into early Sunday morning. Storms may be severe
    across Central and South Mississippi and Northeast Louisiana.

  - Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of
    next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Through Sunday: Main focus remains the potential for severe storms
tonight but latest satellite imagery and surface observations showed
patchy dense fog developing across our southern zones and spreading
north toward our central zones. The dense fog development is
expected to remain patchy but wl be monitored closely for a Dense
Fog Advisory should the development become more extensive.

As for today, satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a potent
shortwave trough shifting east of the Four Corners region. This
shortwave will continue shifting east today closing off a low over
the Southern plains while deepening a surface low as well. This low
pressure system will become nearly stacked as it tracks across our
CWA tonight and Sunday. As the system approaches our CWA today,
moisture and wind shear will be on the increase. The deepening
surface low will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across
our CWA. At this time wind gusts look to remain below Wind
Advisory criteria but model guidance remains in decent agreement
that a strongly forced squall line will move across the southern
half of our CWA tonight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat with the line however a few brief tornadoes will also be
possible. As compared to earlier outlooks, the "Slight" risk area
(Level 2 out of 5) for severe storms has been expanded east to
Forest county and include the area south of Interstate 20. The
"Marginal" risk area (Level 1 out of 5) runs along and south of
southern Morehouse Parish to northern Kemper County. The timing
for the severe threat has sped up a bit and will generally move
into our western zones by 10 PM and exit our eastern zones by 6
AM. Brief heavy downpours will also accompany the storms tonight
but considering the antecedent condition of the soils and the
progressive nature of the event, flash flooding is not a concern.
Eventhough the severe storm threat will have ended, there is still
some concern that a sting jet like feature tied to the surface
low may develop into Sunday morning over the Delta and north of
I-20. If this feature occurs, there could be gusts in excess of 40
mph.

The light rain will gradually taper off from the west Sunday as
the upper level low shifts east of Mississippi but it will take
until the evening before the precipitation ends over our eastern
most zones. Despite the cooler temperatures associated with low
pressure system moving across our CWA, temperatures will remain
above normal Sunday. /22/

Next week...

In the wake of the low this weekend, weather will be quiet under
reinforced ridging. Above normal temperatures will be maintained
with highs in the upper 70s, even low 80s by late week and lows in
the 50s. The ridge begins to flatten and break down late next week
ahead of our next shortwave and cold front, which will bring a
return of rain chances by next weekend. Instability with this system
looks questionable at this time, but there remains a bit of
disagreement in the guidance and the overall wavy pattern bears
watching./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions wl prevail cntrl and south through 15Z before
improving to VFR. VFR conditions along with a gusty wind around
20kts wl prevail this aftn but conditions wl deteriorate from the
west after 00Z Sun as a low pressure system move across the
region. Widespread RA along with TSRA cntrl and south is expected
tonight. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  58  66  50 /  20 100  90  10
Meridian      74  57  70  50 /  10  90 100  20
Vicksburg     74  58  67  50 /  20 100  80  10
Hattiesburg   76  60  73  52 /  10  90  80  10
Natchez       74  58  70  50 /  20 100  60   0
Greenville    73  59  64  47 /  40 100  90   0
Greenwood     75  58  66  48 /  40 100  90  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/22